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Intro to Forex Fundamental Analysis
The best course of action to take sometimes isn�t clear until you�ve listed and considered your alternatives. The following paragraphs should help clue you in to what the experts think is significant.
FOREX traders almost always rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategies. There are two basic types of FOREX analysis � technical and fundamental. This article will look at fundamental analysis and how it used in FOREX trading.
Fundamental analysis refers to political and economic conditions that may affect currency prices. FOREX traders using fundamental analysis rely on news reports to gather information about unemployment rates, economic policies, inflation, and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis is often used to get an overview of currency movements and to provide a broad picture of economic conditions affecting a specific currency. Most traders rely on technical analysis for plotting entry and exit points into the market and supplement their findings with fundamental analysis.
Currency prices on the FOREX are affected by the forces of supply and demand, which in turn are affected by economic conditions. The two most important economic factors affecting supply and demand are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The strength of the economy is affected by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), foreign investment and trade balance.
Indicators
Various indicators are released by government and academic sources. They are reliable measures of economic health and are followed by all sectors of the investment market. Indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but some are released weekly.
Most of this information comes straight from the Forex Fundamental Analysis pros. Careful reading to the end virtually guarantees that you�ll know what they know.
Two of the most important fundamental indicators are interest rates and international trade. Other indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Durable Goods Orders, Producer Price Index (PPI), Purchasing Manager�s Index (PMI), and retail sales.
Interest Rates - can have either a strengthening or weakening effect on a particular currency. On the one hand, high interest rates attract foreign investment which will strengthen the local currency. On the other hand, stock market investors often react to interest rate increases by selling off their holdings in the belief that higher borrowing costs will adversely affect many companies. Stock investors may sell off their holdings causing a downturn in the stock market and the national economy.
Determining which of these two effects will predominate depends on many complex factors, but there is usually a consensus amongst economic observers of how particular interest rate changes will affect the economy and the price of a currency.
International Trade � Trade balance which shows a deficit (more imports than exports) is usually an unfavourable indicator. Deficit trade balances means that money is flowing out of the country to purchase foreign-made goods and this may have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually, however, market expectations dictate whether a deficit trade balance is unfavourable or not. If a county habitually operates with a deficit trade balance this has already been factored into the price of its currency. Trade deficits will only affect currency prices when they are more than market expectations.
Other indicators include the CPI � a measurement of the cost of living, and the PPI � a measurement of the cost of producing goods. The GDP measures the value of all goods and services within a country, while the M2 Money Supply measures the total amount of all currency.
There are 28 major indicators used in the United States. Indicators have strong effects on financial markets so FOREX traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Up-to-date information is available on many websites and many FOREX brokers supply this information as part of their trading service.
Take time to consider the points presented above. What you learn may help you overcome your hesitation to take action.
By Matthew at http://forex-resource-pro.com/
More Thoughts On Forexcms forex
The bid/ask spread is a critical characteristic in that it is also the transaction cost for a round-turn trade. Round-turn is both a buy (or sell) trade and an offsetting sell (or Buy) trade of the same currency pair and the trade of the same size. To calculate the transaction cost the formula is
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At present mostly all the operations on the Forex market are conducting only to obtain profit. With the development of Internet and other means of communication this sector of the financial markets becomes more accessible and attractive for the investors of different levels.
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So, the Forex broker is an advisor who advises you about the forex market and allows you to work for 24 hours a day with major currencies like EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF etc against the US dollar on the spot, i.e. according to the current prices on the forex international exchange market. But the level of profits depends only on your abilities as well as your timely decision.
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Most of these Forex trading systems are reactive (not proactive!!) by design. Like, if a stock or a commodity acts in a certain way, the system assumes that the stock or a commodity will continue to act that way. It generates this conclusion based on the formulas programmed into the system some �Black Boxes" also compute a large array of indicators in an attempt to increase confidence of an action recommendation. Most mechanical trading systems buy or sell breakouts. The stock market calls these traders momentum players. Their formulas assume a continuation of that movement. Should that movement fail to continue, the system will generate a loss, plus the commission cost.
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Choosing a Forex Broker
By Grace Cheng
As you may already know, foreign exchange (Forex/FX) is an unregulated market that is not traded on an exchange, which means that prices you see and get from one broker could vary from those of another broker. There are mainly two types of brokers. One type is an ECN (Electronic Communications Network) and another a Market-Maker.
Market-makers "make" or set the prices on their systems based on what they think is best for themselves as the counter-party. This is because every time you sell, they must buy, and when you buy, they must sell to you. This is why they can give you a fixed spread since they are setting both the bid and the ask price. Many of them will then try to "hedge" or "cover" your order by passing it on to someone else; however, some may decide to hold your order, and thus trade against you. This can result in a conflict of interest between the retail trader (you) and the market-maker.
ECNs, on the other hand, pass on prices from several banks and market-makers, as well as from the other traders in the ECN, and display the best bid/ask prices based on these input. This is why sometimes you can get no spread on ECNs, especially in very liquid currency pairs. How do ECNs make money then? They do so by charging you a fixed commission for each transaction.
Here are some of the pros and cons of ECNs and market-makers:
Market-Makers
Pros:
* Usually give free charting software and news feed
* Prices can be "smoother" and less volatile than ECN prices (this can be a con if you are scalping or trading very short term)
* Often have a more user-friendly trading and analysis interface
Cons:
* They may trade against you. In that case, there will be a conflict of interest between you and them
* The price they offer you may be worse than what you could get on an ECN
* It is possible that they may trigger stops or not let your trade reach your profit target levels by manipulating prices
* During news, there will usually be a large amount of slippage; their systems may also lock up or not allow order placing during times of high volatility
* Many of them discourage scalping and put scalpers on "manual execution" which means their orders may not get filled at the price they want
Examples of some market-makers:
http://www.goforex.net/forex-broker-list.htm#MMECNs
* Pros: You can usually get better bid/ask prices since they come from several sources
* Variable spreads between bid and ask may give no spread or tiny spreads at times
* If they are a true ECN, they will not be trading against you but will pass on your orders to a bank or another customer on the other end of the transaction.
* You will be able to offer a price between the bid and ask with a chance of it getting filled
* If they support Stop-Limit orders, you can prevent slippage during news by making sure that your order either gets filled at the price you want or not at all
* Prices may be more volatile which will be better for scalping
Cons:
* Many do not offer integrated charting
* Many do not offer integrated news
* Many of the trading platforms are less user-friendly
* Because of variable spreads (between bid and ask,) it may be more difficult to calculate stop loss and profit target in pips beforehand.
It is important that you carefully look into the pros and cons of each broker before choosing the one which best suits your needs. You may also wish to have several broker accounts to mitigate the risks, and so that you can compare bid/ask prices and trade on the broker with the best prices for the direction you wish to trade. Because of the unregulated nature of forex, US brokers are not required to keep your money in an untouchable account that only you can have access to if they were to collapse. As customers of Refco (was one of the world's largest brokers) found out, their unprotected accounts made them unsecured creditors, and thus are less likely to get their money back than those who had given secured loans to Refco. What this means is that the customers' money was used to pay other creditors.
The moral of the story is this:
Deposit as little money with your broker as you need for trading, and withdraw your profits when they exceed a certain amount. Keep the rest of your trading capital in your own bank accounts which are probably government-insured.
http://www.gracecheng.com/
Quick Forex Ideasforex trading systems
An exchange rate transaction is termed a cross rate when the home country currency is not a party in the trade. For example, for a trader in the U.S., a cross rate would be euro/yen, or the euro against the Japanese yen.
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Unlike other financial markets, the Forex market has no physical location or central exchange. Since the Forex market lacks a physical exchange, the market trades continuously on a 24-hour basis, moving from one time zone to the next, across each of the world�s major financial centers every day. Trillions of dollars of foreign exchange activity takes place every day. From 1997 to the end of 2000, daily forex trading volume surged approximately from US$5 billion to US$1.5 trillion and more (according to various recent studies it has touched $1.7 trillion per day and dwarfs all other markets for trading in size and volume). It is really difficult, if not impossible; to determine an absolutely exact number because trading is not centralized on an exchange. But one thing is for sure that the Forex market continues to grow at a phenomenal rate.
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Before starting the forex trading, you should begin your Forex training. A professional instructor can assist you in learning different terminologies, concepts and process as a whole in forex trading. In a good Forex training, there are no high-pressure sales pitches, no tricks, and no hidden agendas, but just plain knowledge. Forex training provides traders the ability to take advantage of the foreign currency exchange. This Forex training empowers investors to become world-class forex traders.
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Forex Trading represents one of the few ways for people to start with small stakes and build real wealth quickly and represents the ultimate home business.
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Forex Trading System StoriesOil retreats, but gas continues to riseThu, 24 Apr 2008 15:48:17 EDT
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Forex Signals Advice
By Alvin Han
There are lot's of Forex signals providers out there. New Forex traders might be thinking of looking for a reliable Forex signals provider. Is there any reliable Forex signals providers available?
Personally, I will say do not pay for Forex signals. Think about it - if a Forex signals provider sells Forex signals for living, you can doubt their Forex trading skills? Or else if they are pretty good in Forex trading and making lot's of profit, I am wondering why do they still bother to sell Forex signals for money. Thus, what would be the value of such Forex signals providers? The answer is ZERO.
There are Forex traders who have been relying on Forex signals arguing those Forex signals providers really help them making money in Forex trading. These Forex traders can even show their Forex trading logs as evidence. After some though, I came out with the assumption that assuming I am the owner of a Forex signals provider, in order for my business to be in black, obviously I need some satisfying customers......
Full article available at: http://www.forex.labuan.net/forex-signal.html
Alvin Han is the editor of [http://www.forex.labuan.net/]http://www.forex.labuan.net
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Alvin_Han http://EzineArticles.com/?Forex-Signal,-Forex-Signals-Advice&id=10627
Some Forex Ideascurrency exchange rate
The fluctuating oil prices of the past year - 2005 - are a good example of what can happen when factors affect the price and supply of oil. Remember from basic economy courses that higher oil prices act to put the brakes on consumer spending. This will be true as long as the major source of oil for industrialized countries is petroleum based. The price of all goods produced hinges on the price of a barrel of oil. If the oil prices rise, so do production and supply prices for most consumer goods. In addition, the expenses of individual consumers rise as they pay more to fuel their automobiles and heat their homes. The net result is a downward swing in the economy of the country until it hits a rallying point that starts it back on an upward trend.
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Higher the leverage, the lower the margin requirement thus the greater the potential for losses or profiting form forex trading. The margin percentages can vary from 1 percent to 10 percent. Profiting from forex can be great with low margin requirements when the trades are good but not great when you are wrong.
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Once Soros of Quantum Fund hit the nail on the head with his theory of reflexivity in the market and that is exactly how these players work in the market. That rather romantic tool of daily candlestick chart is useful because whenever some players start positioning to start or stop short-term moves in Yen market, say several hundred pips, for whatever reasons, it reveals their intention to the market, more often than not. It sounds so weird to say tens of yards are spent relying on indicators so primitive like hand-drawn candlestick charts, but that is the truth in Yen market. Same as millions of soldiers risking their lives depending on how their generals draw up the battle plan with their cheap red and blue pencils in their operation room desk. Crazy world, I would say, but that is the fact. And as you say, battle is a battle and those ones who make their first move with their candlestick may not always win either.
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Forex charting software includes many features as simple click fills. In this software an indicator is a series of data points that is derived by applying a formula to the price data of a particular security. Price data includes any combination of open, high, low or close points plotted over a period of time. Some indicators may use only the closing prices, while others incorporate volume and open interest into their formulas. The price data is entered into the formula and the software produces a data point. The goal of Technical Analysis is to build indicators and make indicator analysis to build market-timing strategy.
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The Latest Forex Software NewsWoes continue for USD with further cuts firmly on horizonFri, 09 Nov 2007 06:15:56 GMT
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