Wednesday, April 30, 2008

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Forming an Opinion Which Way Your Chosen Currency Might Go

By: Paul Dubsky

It is known that currencies react to a series of events such as inflation, interest rates, the state of the economy, and so forth. Because of this, it is vital to keep evaluating the various data, in order to form an opinion of the direction the currency of your choice might be heading.

Let us look at inflation and what it actually means. It is not about a particular model of a boat or a motorcycle, or certain services costing more money, which could be due to business enterprise success or failure, but about a widespread increase in prices throughout the country.

The rate of the inflation is based on a calculation of the average price change right across the economy. This is usually taken over a period of a year, hence the term annual inflation.

If there is an annual inflation rate for a particular month, say March this year of two per cent, it would mean that the prices in general were 2 per cent higher this March, than in the same month last year. Therefore, a blend of usually purchased items costing GBP100 last March, would be costing GBP102 this March.

To get the right reading, prices are taken all over the country in many sectors like the supermarkets, big stores, travel and insurance firms, etc.

There are other issues which set the level of inflation in the economy, but the fundamental causes of inflation have to do with the extent of demand in the economy, and can be narrowed down to how much cash can be spent in relation to what can be produced.

When demand shoots up above what can normally be produced in normal circumstances, this upward pressure creates a rise in costs and prices. When the demand is down, this creates a downward pressure in costs and prices. To keep inflation controlled, it is required to keep a balance between the demand and output situation. When you have an excessive demand to the supply position, you have a formula to generate an inflation climate. This is the reason for stability as a goal.

Lowering interest rates may well see a rise in output, but only for a limited period. If both demand and output have been strongly increased and then suddenly fall, it is called boom and bust.

It is also useful to keep an eye on the extent of the employment and unemployment figures. These can indicate the size of the economic movement as well as the weight of labour demand, increases of wages, and of prices.

Do not forget to take notice of the (CPI) Consumer Price Index which is an important measure of inflation.

Watch also the balance of trade situation. A trade surplus is a positive balance of trade, namely the exports are bigger than the imports, whereas a trade deficit is a negative balance of trade with imports being larger than exports.

There are a number of other points that can be looked into of course, but the main ones are important to keep in mind at all times.

A number of people follow the charts, and keep an eye on what the position was year after year.

There is no known magic formula as such, to positively determine the direction of any currency pair, but being informed as much as possible, goes a long way to narrow the odds against you.

Paul Dubsky is director of Foreign Currency Exchange Services Ltd. http://www.foreigncurrencyexchangeservices.co.uk/

More Thoughts On Forex

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During each trading day in Forex day trading, overall foreign currency trading volume is determined by what markets are open and the times each of these markets overlap one another. With each passing second, minute and hour, Forex currency trading volume remains high, but peaks highest when the British, European and U.S. markets are open at the same time - from 1 p.m. GMT to 4 p.m. GMT. The volume of the Pacific Rim markets, such as Japan and Hong Kong, subsides compared to the crest of the U.S. market, but still offer the Forex trader the ability to analyze the highly traded Pacific Rim currencies
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Ebb and flow of capital between nations, otherwise known as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is the central factor that determines market momentum. In addition, fundamental economic forces such as inflation and interest rates are constantly influencing currency prices. Faith in a government�s ability to stand behind its currency will also impact currency price. This is done in two ways: controls and intervention. Controls restrict citizens from doing things, which have a negative effect on the exchange rate (such as sending money abroad). Intervention takes two forms: changing the interest rate on the currency to make it more or less attractive to foreigners, or buying/selling the currency to raise or lower its market value.

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The Forex market is perhaps the biggest financial market in today�s world. According to the latest stats, today more than 85% of all daily transactions involve trading of the Majors, which include the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, Euro, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. A true 24-hour market, Forex trading begins each day in Sydney, and moves around the globe as the business day begins in each financial center, first to Tokyo, London, and New York. There is so much to learn about this highly competitive, volatile and fragile market that we may find it a daunting task to learn it inside-out, so we do need some sort of forex training or education to equip our self to perform better in the market.

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